Maui’s Condo Market Drops 32 Percent. What It Signals for Oahu and Big Island in 2026

by Jeffrey Haynes

A sharp correction hit Maui this year. According to the Realtors Association of Maui, reported by Pacific Business News on November 21, the median condo price fell from $920,000 in October 2024 to $625,750 in October 2025. That is a 32 percent drop. It is the lowest pricing Maui has seen in 2025.

The interesting part is sales didn’t collapse. 62 Maui condos sold in October, only 4.6 percent fewer than last year. Buyers are still buying, they just refused to pay 2024 prices.

That tells us something important. The market isn’t pulling back because condos are suddenly undesirable. It pulled back because buyers don’t trust the future of values. The fear is coming from regulation, financing costs, and policy decisions that impact short-term rentals and carrying costs.

The Drivers Behind Maui’s Decline

Proposed vacation rental law changes (Bill 9, Minatoya List)
Higher mortgage interest rates
Federal shutdown interruptions
Tariffs affecting development and pricing

When risk goes up faster than values, buyers take a step back. Even when prices drop.

What Oahu Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

Oahu behaves very differently. A much larger portion of condos are owned and occupied by full-time residents. Local employment stabilizes demand. Tourism isn’t the primary driver of values.

We do not expect anything close to Maui’s 30 percent correction.

Oahu Outlook

Expect a modest 6 to 12 percent price softening rather than a collapse.
Expect longer days on market and more negotiation instead of panic selling.
Expect stronger demand in buildings with reasonable maintenance fees and stable reserves.

Sellers who are priced correctly will still sell. Buyers who wait for a “2020-style crash” will likely miss opportunities the same way buyers did in 2011-2012. The market is shifting, not failing.

What Big Island Should Prepare For

Big Island splits into two markets. Workforce housing behaves like Oahu. Resort and second-home condos behave more like Maui.

Big Island Outlook

Kona and resort condos could fall 10 to 18 percent if rental uncertainty continues.
Hilo and workforce housing may soften 3 to 7 percent due to inventory limits and high construction costs.
The biggest risk isn’t values. It’s insurance in lava and coastal risk zones. If premiums rise again, prices will adjust whether buyers want them to or not.

How Forward Capital and Haynes Residential Can Help

We work on both sides of the equation. We negotiate homes and we structure the financing. This gives our clients more control over price, buying power, and closing leverage.

For Buyers

We can trade rate for credits to cover closing costs when pricing is soft.
We help negotiate seller concessions without inflating appraisals.
We track risk-exposed buildings and avoid units that may lose value.

For Sellers

We bring in qualified buyers with verified assets and true pre-approval through Forward Capital.
We position listings based on absorption rate, not wishful pricing.
We protect your bottom line through stronger upfront screening, clean contracts, and shorter contingencies.

For Investors

We underwrite rent viability before you write an offer.
We build hold-versus-sell strategies based on financing cost, not emotion.
We identify markets avoiding Maui-style risk.

One Market Doesn’t Define Hawaii

Maui’s 32 percent condo decline does not mean statewide collapse. It means Hawaii is becoming more sensitive to political decisions, insurance costs, and building-level financial health.

Anyone buying or selling in 2026 needs sharper guidance than a generic MLS search.

If you want a custom market breakdown tied to your budget, loan options, income, and risk tolerance, we’ll build it for free.